Tuesday, August 2, 2016

A Worrisome Disturbance

We are keeping a close eye on a "Tropical Wave" that as of this morning is tracking just south of Jamaica and is headed our way at ~20mph.  Here is a screen shot from the US National Hurricane Center as of Tuesday 2 August.

The center of that red X would be directly over our place if it tracks due west.  Fortunately, for us anyway, the models all project it tracking on a curve to the northwest toward the top of Belize.  Even then, the bottom edge of the storm will pass over us.   And of course, the models could be inaccurate at this point.

The "Tropical Wave" has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.  It will likely continue to strengthen and chances are good that it will become a tropical depression or even a hurricane before it makes landfall.  At this point, the least we are expecting is sustained winds of 45mph and heavy rain for about a day starting late Wednesday or early Thursday. It could develop into something more serious, so we are watching the forecasts very closely.

We are in Phase 1 of Hurricane Preparedness which means we are clearing everything off our verandas and removing things like fallen coconuts away from the building.  As the storm gets closer, we will seal our water vats.  If the storm develops in strength, we will enter Phase 2 and put hurricane shutters up all along the perimeter of screened in verandas and over all the windows and doors of our cabana and the caretaker's cabana.  We had a dry run for this a month ago, so we know that we have everything at hand.

I will try to post more as things develop; right now I better get busy locking things down.

6 comments:

  1. Oh dear. Glad you're prepared but I certainly hope that you're spared anything very bad.

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    1. Thanks, we have our fingers crossed. It is now officially Tropical Storm Earl. We have escalated our preparations. Not surprisingly, plans made in the calm abstract are proving, shall we say, "interesting" to deploy in reality. Things are OK and still no need for panic. Will try to post an update tonight before bed.

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    2. I hope it passes without incident Wilma. Good luck.

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    3. Thanks, Keith. The center is still tracking north of us, but the storm itself is bigger than all of Belize! Not because it is an unusually large storm, but because Belize is a very small country. It will very likely become a hurricane before it makes landfall. We are expecting winds of 40-60 MPH and lots of rain. We will be ready when it makes its presence felt midday Wednesday.

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  2. Wilma - y'all stay safe. Do you plan to stay if things continue to develop, or do you have a place to go?

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    1. Thanks, Bill. We will definitely evacuate if it develops into a Category 2 hurricane projected to make landfall within 50 miles of us. We have a number of options of safe(r) places to stay. So far, so good. I am worried about friends in the northern part of Belize, though. Looks like they will bear the brunt of it.

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